Quantum Risk Calculator

Is your firm ready for a quantum-based cyber attack? Use the quantum calculator to find out.

While quantum computing holds great promise in advancing science and medical discovery, and other breakthroughs, many organizations, however, face the more immediate concern of how quantum computing will disrupt classic cryptography. The BITS Quantum Risk Calculator will help people and organizations better understand if, and when, action needs to be taken to minimize risk to your data to make yourself ready for a Post-Quantum Computing world.

How many years from now must your data be secure?*
Organizations often have regulatory or internal policy requirements to protect data over a particular period of time. Whether this is an estimate or a specific date in the future, knowing how long data needs to be protected will help determine if, and when, quantum computing will potentially put this protected data at risk.
How many years would it take to retool your infrastructure?*
Often called change management (or change control), in the context of quantum computing, this is the estimated period of time it takes for technology teams to make organizational or operational changes to abstract and replace classic (legacy) cryptography with quantum-resistant.
When do you estimate a large-scale Quantum Computer will be built?*
This question may be the more challenging question to answer as even the most informed quantum computing experts are unable to find agreement. If you are unsure, consider estimating a cryptographically relevant quantum computer being available by the early 2030’s.
What type of encryption does your institution use?*
- Symmetric: AES
- Asymmetric: ECC/ECDH
Hash – Cryptographic hashing functions are mathematical equations used to map data of an arbitrary size to a fixed size. These functions are commonly used for digital signatures, checksums, digital fingerprinting, and password security.

Hash functions are vulnerable to quantum computing however by lengthening the size of the hashed output, hash functions can be managed to survive first contact with quantum.

Examples of modern hashing functions includes SHA-2 and SHA-3.

Symmetric – Symmetric cryptographic algorithms use the same shared secret key to encrypt and decrypt data stores. Often this type of encryption is used for data at-rest or with two or more parties that have exchanged the shared secret key over a separate secure channel.

Symmetric keys will be vulnerable to Grover’s algorithm however symmetric keys may be lengthened to harden them against the immediate impact of quantum computing.

Examples of modern symmetric key encryption includes AES-256 and 3DES.

Asymmetric - Asymmetric cryptography, also known as public keys / public key infrastructure (PKI), use key pairs (public and private keys) and do not require a secure channel for the initial exchange of secret keys. Asymmetric is the cryptography of choice for common Internet facing applications like web browsers (SSL/TLS), email (PGP, TLS) and emerging technologies like blockchain / distributed ledgers.

Asymmetric keys are vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm, which will allow quantum computing to decrypt data in real time. Unlike hashing and symmetric keys, asymmetric keys cannot be reasonably hardened against quantum computing based attacks. Rather, asymmetric keys will be irrevocably broken when quantum computing becomes commercially available.

Examples of modern asymmetric cryptography includes RSA, Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECDSA, ECDH), and Finite Field Cryptography (DSA).
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Build Time*
How many years from now must your data be secure? + How many years would it take to retool your infrastructure?
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Time Remaining*
Estimated arrival - current year
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Time Calculation*
How many years from now must your data be secure? + How many years would it take to retool your infrastructure?
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Action Needed*
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Action Needed B*
Action required by the following date: Current Year + (Z-(X+Y))-1

Acknowledgements

BITS would like to thank Dr. Michele Mosca and the Institute for Quantum Computing for developing Mosca’s Theorem, the theorem that forms the basis for this calculator.

BITS would also like to acknowledge the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) for developing new and innovative approaches to Years-to-Quantum Cryptography and leading the search for Quantum Resistant and Quantum Proof cryptographic algorithms.

Disclaimer: BPI is not responsible for misuse of this calculator. The calculator is just for planning purposes, but a full internal risk assessment should be conducted by your organization.